The "Size Surface Switch" Hong Kong Racing Masterclass
- Jan 21
- 2 min read
Ever wonder why a John Size horse suddenly finds lengths when switching to the dirt? It’s not luck—it’s a calculated system. It's a Hong Kong racing master class Here is the breakdown of the "Size Methodology"
🔍 Why the Stats are so High
John Size doesn't just "try" the All Weather; he targets it.
Here’s the "Magic Sauce":
🧪 The "Dirt Trial" Filter: Size rarely switches a horse unless he's seen the necessary "action" on the surface. While the Jan 13 trial looked plain, it was the first time Andrea Atzeni jumped on the horse this month to get a feel for its dirt gait. Size uses the AWT to find "easy" wins for horses that have reached their ceiling on turf.
🏆 The 13-Time Champion Factor: As of early 2026, John Size is the only 13-time Champion Trainer in HK history. He is a master of "placement"—waiting until a horse like Noble Deluxe drops from a 38 rating down to a basement 27 to strike.
🧬 Surface Affinity: He targets specific bloodlines. Noble Deluxe is by Toronado, a sire whose stock often appreciates the "give" in the Sha Tin AWT compared to a firm turf track.
📊 The "Lethal Duo" Stats: Size + Andrea Atzeni
By booking Atzeni (currently 3rd in the Jockey Premiership with 16 wins this season) instead of an apprentice, Size is prioritizing navigation over weight relief. Atzeni has a proven 16% strike rate in AWT middle-distance races this season.
PRO TIP:
Atzeni is elite at the "Rails Stalk." While Noble Deluxe was "used up" early last start and faded, your map shows Atzeni likely to sit in the Box Seat (Barrier 4). This allows the horse to conserve energy behind the leaders and avoid the worst of the kickback.
🎯 HK Profiler: Noble Deluxe (#10) Connection Sha Tin AWT 21/01/2026
Noble Deluxe fits the profile of a horse "screaming" to win. He has been top-5 in nearly all his starts this season but lacked the tactical edge to finish it off. The move to the AWT with a Group 1-winning rider like Atzeni is the ultimate "intent" signal from the stable.
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